Evaluating Japan’s New Grand Strategy

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This Adelphi book evaluates Japan’s new grand strategy, considering whether it and associated reforms are sufficiently robust to fulfil Japan’s goal of ensuring its security even in the scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Geopolitical stresses in the Indo-Pacific are increasing and intensifying. These stresses derive from China’s more assertive regional behaviour; growing alignments between China and Russia on the one hand and Russia and North Korea on the other; and most recently from the apparent recalibration of United States foreign policy under the second Trump administration. They have magnified Japan’s significance as a strategic actor both in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

As such, it is of global importance whether Japan can meet the grand-strategic goals that it established in its 2022 National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program. This Adelphi book evaluates Japan’s new grand strategy, considering whether it and associated reforms are sufficiently robust to fulfil Japan’s goal of ensuring its security even in the scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Obsah

Introduction

· A grand-strategic watershed

· The catalysts for change

· Testing Japanese resilience

‘Hardware’ and ‘software’

Chapter One: Japan’s shifting strategic compass

· Maritime Japan

· Four strategic phases

· A triangle and triangulation

Chapter Two: Building Japanese deterrence and response capabilities – defence and diplomacy

· Changing defence assumptions

· Japan’s strategic shift to the Southwest Islands

· Building defence and defence-industrial resilience

· Cyber, intelligence and space

· Defence diplomacy – networking deterrence

Chapter Three: New tools of Japanese security

· Japan’s ‘comprehensive national power’

· Japan’s evolving geo-economic power

· Economic security – increasing Japanese geo-economic agency

· Economic security and industrial policy

Chapter Four: Structural impediments

· Japan acquires its strategic ‘rheostat’

· Demographic and fiscal headwinds

· Societal change

Conclusion

· Structural change in Japan

· Japan’s capacity to deliver